The Rookies We Got Wrong with Addison Hayes

Written By Jeff Blaylock
The Rookies We Got Wrong with Addison Hayes title card

Jeff Blaylock sits down with Addison Hayes of Dynasty League Football to go through the rookies they got wrong and, more importantly, why. Addison's Marker System has a strong track record, but no model is perfect, and the misses reveal patterns that could save you from drafting a bust.

“The small school one is definitely one of the more prevailing factors that keeps coming back up.”

In Episode 41 of Dynasty Compass, Jeff Blaylock welcomes Addison Hayes from Dynasty League Football for an honest post-draft look at their rookie evaluation failures. The conversation begins with a thorough explanation of Addison's Marker System: a checkbox-based grading model rooted in production, athleticism, and draft capital that grades prospects against the historical profiles of successful NFL players at each position. Addison explains the adjustments built into the model, such as team-adjusted metrics like yards per team pass attempt for wide receivers, Dominator Rating, breakout age, and a draft capital curve that accounts for the difference between being picked 8th overall versus 32nd — and why the system deliberately excludes landing spot.

The episode's centerpiece is a walk through the model's most significant misses among highly graded prospects. Corey Davis gets the first and most detailed treatment, with Addison identifying two factors — his status as a four-year player and his production against non-power-four competition at Western Michigan — as signals the model may not have adequately weighted. N'Keal Harry follows, which leads to one of the episode's big takeaways: the N'Keal Harry List, Addison's label for first- and second-round wide receivers whose season-long production metrics significantly outnumber their advanced, per-route markers. The Ladd McConkey List flags the opposite: players who outperform their raw stats on a per-route basis and has produced a strong hit rate. Cam Akers and J.K. Dobbins round out Addison's misses with a more forgiving verdict: both graded well, and both were undone by catastrophic knee injuries rather than flawed profiles.

Jeff adds his own confession list: Jalen Reagor (a TCU connection clouded his judgment), Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson in Superflex, Henry Ruggs (great athleticism but never the featured receiver at Alabama), and, most memorably, Puka Nacua. Jeff traded a third-round pick for Allen Lazard in pursuit of a floor, had been eyeing Puka, and has regretted it ever since. The lesson he draws: in rounds three through five, every player has the same floor — zero — so there's no reason to trade away upside chasing safety.

The episode closes with a forward-looking pass at the 2026 class, where Addison notes the average grade across the top 50 players is the lowest in the system's history, and walks through what the "Crushed by Zone" label on his website means for players like KC Concepcion.

Key Takeaways

  • The Marker System is a grade, not a prediction. It measures how a prospect's production, athleticism, and draft capital compare to historically successful players at their position — it doesn't account for landing spot or NFL situation.

  • Small school production is a persistent model error. Corey Davis's numbers at Western Michigan were extraordinary, but the competition level may have inflated them — Addison is considering a sliding scale for school competition in future iterations.

  • The N'Keal Harry List is a genuine red flag. First- and second-round wide receivers who hit far fewer advanced markers than regular markers have a poor track record. Several 2026 prospects carry this signal.

  • The Ladd McConkey List is the positive counterpart. Players whose per-route advanced numbers outpace their raw production have hit at a strong rate — Makai Lemon is the only 2026 wide receiver to qualify.

  • Injury is a category of miss the model can't catch. Cam Akers and J.K. Dobbins had strong analytical profiles. What happened to them had nothing to do with their grades.

  • In late rounds, everyone has the same floor. Jeff's Puka Nacua trade — giving up a third-round pick for Allen Lazard to chase a floor — is a cautionary tale about misapplying risk-aversion where it doesn't belong.

  • The 2026 class grades out historically weak. The average grade among the top 50 players is the lowest in Addison's database — and only one class in the system's history has come close.

Timestamps

00:00 – Why we need to talk about our misses

07:33 – Markers: production, athleticism & draft capital

16:41 – Adjustments to raw production that tell the real story

24:11 – Corey Davis and the small school problem

26:34 – N'Keal Harry and the advanced marker gap

28:55 – Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, and the injury caveat

33:23 – Jadarian Price and the CEH comparison

44:11 – Small school patterns and the zone-coverage signal

47:07 – Analytics vs. film: where each approach has blind spots

51:49 – Jeff's misses: Reagor, Darnold, Wilson, Ruggs, and Puka Nacua

57:51 – Lessons for dynasty managers and a warning for 2026

1:13:17 – Where to find Addison's work

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