These Rookie Metrics Matter with Ryan Heath

Written By Jeff Blaylock

Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points sits down with Jeff Blaylock to discuss the metrics that matter for predicting the dynasty success of rookie WRs, TEs, and RBs. Ryan shares the prospects he’s higher on than consensus and raises some red flags about others.

“Production on screens isn't telling us much. That skillset doesn't translate to ‘this is gonna be a high volume fantasy wide receiver.’”

In Episode 34 of Dynasty Compass, Jeff Blaylock sits down with Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points to go deep on the analytical framework behind the models Ryan created to evaluate the 2026 rookie prospects at wide receiver, tight end, and running back.

The conversation begins with the model's design philosophy: Ryan’s model predicts the average of a player's best two of their first three NFL seasons, which he found to be the closest proxy for early-career dynasty value. Draft capital is a bigger input in his model than in most others, he explains, precisely because he limits himself to two or three production metrics per position — avoiding the trap of stacking correlated stats that all measure roughly the same thing.

For wide receivers, Ryan's primary metric is yards per team pass attempt, adjusted for age and strength of schedule. This controls for massive variation in college offensive environments and rewards prospects who produced at young ages against quality competition. At tight end, his two production variables are best-season reception share and career missed tackles forced per game — the former capturing target-volume dominance, the latter serving as an on-field proxy for athleticism and after-catch creation. The episode also covers his running back model, which centers on yards after per game (a combined measure of raw production, creation ability, and volume) and penalizes one-hit wonders who only became productive in a final college season.

Ryan then applies the frameworks to the class. His flag plants: Jordyn Tyson as WR1 despite the injury narrative, Jonah Coleman as a multi-season producer who stands apart from most of this RB class, and Elijah Sarratt as a day two WR with a production profile that belongs on day one lists. On the TE side, Ryan finds more to like in the day two and day three range — Max Klare, Sam Roush, and Tanner Koziol all stand out on reception share — while Michael Trigg's late-career emergence and historically poor vertical jump make him a notable fade. And on slot concentration and screen reliance, Ryan delivers a number that should give every dynasty manager pause: among day two or later wide receivers with over 70% of college targets in the slot, only two 1,000-yard NFL receiving seasons exist in the entire historical record.

Key Takeaways

  • Ryan's model targets the average of a player's best two out of first three NFL seasons — not peak output, not career totals, but early career dynasty production.

  • Yards per team pass attempt is his top WR metric because it controls for team passing volume, then gets adjusted for age and strength of schedule to reward early producers against tough competition.

  • At tight end, best season reception share and career missed tackles forced per game are the two most predictive production stats — capturing both volume dominance and after-catch creation.

  • SPORQ athleticism matters more at TE than at any other position, even above and beyond what draft capital predicts, making it a meaningful bonus variable in Ryan's model.

  • Slot concentration kills day two WR ceilings — 50 day two or later wide receivers with 70%+ slot target rates have produced exactly two 1,000-yard receiving seasons combined.

  • Ryan's flag plants: Jordyn Tyson (WR1), Jonah Coleman (RB3), Elijah Sarratt (WR7 overall); his notable fades: Michael Trigg, Mike Washington, Zachariah Branch.

  • Use tiers, not strict rankings — Ryan emphasizes that within a tier, personal risk tolerance and landing spot are legitimate reasons to adjust, and that his rankings are meant to communicate ranges of outcomes, not certainties.

Timestamps

00:00 – Welcome & Model Building

05:44 – What the Model Predicts

10:35 – Predictive Metrics for WRs

17:14 – Predictive Metrics for TEs

28:09 – Predictive Metrics for RBs

33:17 – Flag Plants: Coleman, Tyson, Sarratt

41:54 – The Problem with Screens: Zachariah Branch

46:32 – Troubles with Washington, Bell & Hurst

52:27 – TEs Who Shine and Those Who Don’t

56:51 – The Problem with Slot Concentration

1:01:31 – Understanding Tiers Is Key

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