Adding Defensive Stars to Your Dynasty Leagues with Matt Montgomery

Written By Jeff Blaylock

Most dynasty managers seldom think about what's happening on the other side of the ball. In Episode 45, Jeff Blaylock sits down with Footballguys' Matt Montgomery for a ground-up introduction to individual defensive players: what they are, how they score, and how any dynasty league can start incorporating them. From scoring to startup draft strategy, this is the IDP episode dynasty managers have been waiting for.

“You can't buy right before the breakout. You gotta buy months before the breakout.”

In Episode 44 of Dynasty Compass, Jeff Blaylock sits down with JJ Zachariason, founder of Late Round QB, to explore one of dynasty's most valuable and underused edges: identifying breakout players in their second and third NFL seasons before the market figures it out. JJ traces his analytical journey from a marketing degree and a self-published e-book to a 14-year career built on asking better questions than everyone else — and then building models to answer them.

JJ explains his ZAP Model, which projects a player's fantasy ceiling using the best two seasons across their first three NFL years, weighted against draft capital, college production, size, age, and program strength. He then introduces his newest tool, Market Score, which applies similar logic to redraft ADP — revealing which players are outperforming or underperforming what the prior-season data would actually predict. At certain positions, particularly tight end and middle-round quarterback, Market Score is dramatically more predictive than ADP alone.

The conversation covers the specific signals JJ looks for at each position: mobility at quarterback, pass-catching volume (measured by yards per route run) at running back, per-route efficiency at wide receiver, and athleticism plus college production backbone at tight end. He makes the case that talent is stickier than environment, that injuries matter mostly through the lens of cost, and that dynasty success depends on two equally important pillars — production and market value accumulation — with the hardest part being the willingness to finally go all in and convert value into wins.

JJ closes with specific 2026 breakout candidates at running back (Jonathan Brooks, Bhayshul Tuten, Keaton Mitchell, Jaylen Warren), wide receiver (Luther Burden, Zay Flowers, Jaylen Waddle), and tight end (Dalton Kincaid, Terrance Ferguson), plus honorable mentions for Alec Pierce and Josh Downs. He cautions that several of these players are already rising and that the most common mistake dynasty managers make is paying for a breakout before it actually happens.

Key Takeaways

  • IDP is the closest thing to managing a real football team in fantasy — and it changes how you watch the game.

  • The 3-2-1 scoring baseline (sacks, big plays, tackles) is the most accessible starting point for any league new to IDP.

  • Snap counts are everything. If a defensive player is on the field 80–90% of his team's snaps, the fantasy points will follow.

  • Linebackers are the RBs of your defense — the volume producers who give you a weekly floor and occasional ceiling.

  • Add IDP gradually. Start with a flex spot or two and vanilla scoring before building complexity into your league.

  • In startup drafts, go aggressive early on big-play IDP talent, then manage conservatively through trades and waivers.

  • Draft for talent, trade for need applies to IDP, with one key addition: NFL draft capital is a stronger signal for defensive prospects than it is on offense.

  • The biggest IDP mistake most managers make is only rostering the names everyone already knows. Championships are won with the players others haven't found yet.

Timestamps

00:00 – What is IDP?

09:40 – How IDP scoring works (Matt's 3-2-1 explained)

16:14 – How IDP affects roster construction and pick value

24:02 – When to add IDP to an existing league vs. starting fresh

34:29 – Commissioner mistakes and how to avoid them

41:43 – Golden rules for IDP in an offense-first league

48:59 – Draft aggressive, manage conservative

54:09 – The IDP Stock Market series explained

01:00:20 – The biggest mistake IDP managers make & Matt's best advice

01:04:23 – Where to find Matt Montgomery

Related Links & Tools

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Buying Breakouts Before They Break Out with JJ Zachariason