Episode 15 - The Island of Broken Toys

Written By Jeff Blaylock
The Island of Broken Toys Episode Title Card

Injuries create opportunity in dynasty fantasy football. Jeff Blaylock explains how to value “broken toys” — injured players with long-term upside — and how to buy them at the right discount while keeping your team strategy intact.

When a star player gets hurt, his value drops, and savvy dynasty managers might be able to acquire them at a discount. Jeff explores the “Island of Broken Toys”: the metaphorical place where injured, temporarily unplayable players go to rest, rehabilitate and restore themselves to their prior fantasy production. Broken toys are productive players sidelined by major injuries, often for the rest of the season, whose managers are frustrated and may be looking to move on. But for those thinking long-term, they can represent some of the best value buys in dynasty.

Jeff explains how to identify “broken toy” opportunities, how to value them correctly, and when not to take the risk. He also shares injury research from Footballguys’ Adam Hutchison, outlines the risks by position, and gives practical trade-discount guidelines so you can buy (or sell) with clarity instead of emotion.

Key Takeaways

  • Broken toys = productive players on IR who still have long-term upside but no current fantasy utility.

  • Strategic fit first: Never acquire or trade away a broken toy without knowing your team’s direction.

  • Discount or don’t deal: A fair dynasty discount is usually ½ to 2 full “performance levels” down depending on player type.

  • Buyers: Rebuilders (South) and perennial contenders (North) can afford patience and risk.

  • Sellers: Win-now teams (West) often move injured stars to chase points now.

  • Watch for red flags: Age, repeat soft-tissue injuries, role loss, scheme changes and more.

  • Scarcity can erase discounts: Sometimes the right move is to walk away.

Timestamps

0:00 – Injuries and the island of broken toys introduction
1:14 – What makes a player a “broken toy”
2:22 – Always trade with a strategy in mind
3:15 – Dynasty vs. redraft approaches to injured players
4:37 – Case study: Tank Dell and the long road back
6:06 – Injury risk by position (Adam Hutchison’s research)
9:59 – Why the broken-toy market exists
11:22 – Buyers and sellers by compass direction
14:32 – Motivated, risk-averse, and “scorned-lover” sellers
16:21 – How much of a discount to expect
20:12 – Red flags to watch out for
25:00 – Scarcity, strategy, and when to walk away
26:25 – Closing thoughts and preview of Episode 16: The Strategic Suck

Related Links & Tools

Jeff Blaylock
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Episode 14 - Trade Deadline Strategies