Episode 12 - Draft Picks: The Currency of Dynasty
Draft picks are possibilities—not promises. In this episode, Jeff explains why flexibility beats certainty, how “possibilities vs. points” should guide every trade, and what different pick ranges are actually worth.
At mid-season, trades accelerate—and so does confusion about what draft picks are really worth. Jeff argues that picks have no inherent value; they’re merely options whose prices rise with the illusion of certainty (e.g., “the 1.03” feels safer than “a 1st”). He shows why managers overpay when they fixate on a specific pick or player, and how flexibility—being willing to move within tiers, trade down, or pivot from player to pick—creates surplus value.
Using eight rookie classes (2017–2024) and dynasty draft ADP as the frame, Jeff highlights the probability of landing an every-week starter by pick bands: 1.01 is almost a lock for an every-week starter; hit rates fall sharply through the mid-first, rebound late-1st/early-2nd, then decline rapidly after that. From there, he maps picks to his five player types (Cornerstones, Set-and-Forgets, Next-Man-Ups, Developing Talents & Dart Throws) and gives a practical trade value guide for common pick ranges.
Finally, he applies these concepts to the Compass directions and how each strategy should approach buying and selling draft picks. The through-line: set direction first, then transact—strategy before emotion.
Key Takeaways
Draft picks = possibilities, not points; their price is driven by perceived certainty.
Flexibility creates value; fixation (“my guy,” “that pick”) invites overpaying.
1.01 ≈ near-lock for an every-week starter; everything after is probabilities and tiers.
Late-1st/early-2nd ≈ ~coin-flip to land an every-week starter; probabilities drop quickly after 2.06.
Use tiers (bands) > single slots (except 1.01).
Decide Possibilities vs. Points based on your Compass direction (West/South/North/East).
Future picks usually discount ~½–1 round per year out.
Let others pay a premium for certainty; earn a premium by being flexible.
Quick Reference: Pick → Player Value Guide
1.01 → Cornerstone + starter
1.02–1.05 → Cornerstone + contributor or two starters
1.06–1.09 → Starter + low-end starter or starter + contributor
1.10–2.02 → Starter (productive vet ok); rentals need a small add
2.03–2.06 → Lower-end starter or strong contributor (rentals ok)
2.07–2.12 → Contributor
Round 3 → Sweetener level; depth contributor (RB handcuff, WR3/4, QB2/3)
Round 4+ → Value balancer only
Future Picks Heuristic: Each year out ≈ ½–1 round discount (e.g., a 2027 1st ≈ lower-end 2026 1st or upper-end 2026 2nd).
Apply the Compass
West: Trade picks → points. Avoid paying for future “certainty.”
South: Accumulate multiple firsts to beat coin-flip odds.
North: Selectively spend on assets that help now and later; avoid rentals. Consider Developing Talents that fit your arc.
East: Wait for clarity; sell late to contenders when prices peak. If unsure, stand pat.
Related Links & Tools
Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts or Spotify
Ep. 14: Trade Deadline Strategies
Ep. 13: Boosting Your Starting Lineup
Ep. 1: Where Are You Going?
