Episode 10 - Welcome to Dumpsville
Saying goodbye can be hard, but it’s necessary. Jeff walks through when to move on from underperforming players—and the three traps that keep dynasty managers holding on to certain players too long.
Welcome to Dumpsville.
You can’t build a dynasty without knowing when to let go. In this episode, Jeff Blaylock—The Other Jeff B from Footballguys—takes a trip down the road to Dumpsville to confront one of the toughest parts of roster management: deciding when it’s time to move on.
Jeff outlines three psychological traps that keep dynasty managers clinging to players they should cut: the Sunk Cost Fallacy, Wishcasting, and False Insurance. He explains how to test whether a player truly belongs on your roster using his GM Extension Test—asking, “If I were this player’s real GM, would I give him another contract?”
The episode blends practical roster management with real dynasty data, revealing how few players “hit” after Year 2. If a player hasn’t earned meaningful snaps, routes, or touches by that point, the NFL—and your roster—are probably telling you what you need to know. Clear-headed decision-making and honest self-assessment are the keys to freeing roster spots for what’s next.
Key Takeaways / Highlights
“If you wouldn’t extend him in the NFL, don’t extend him on your dynasty bench.”
Three traps: Sunk Cost Fallacy, Wishcasting, and False Insurance.
“Volume is earned — if he hasn’t earned snaps, routes, and touches by Year 3, the NFL is telling you what you need to know.”
Forecast the likely case, not the ceiling. Wishcasting clogs benches.
Use the GM Extension Test before deciding who to cut.
Opportunity, usage, and trust tell the truth about value.
Chapter Timestamps
00:00 – Cold Open: Bye weeks → Bye-byes
01:10 – Welcome and Episode 10 milestone
02:10 – The Road to Dumpsville
06:00 – The Three Traps: Sunk Cost, Wishcasting, and False Insurance
11:10 – The GM Extension Test
13:00 – Opportunity Is Everything
17:20 – Why Haven’t They Broken Out by Year 3?
20:50 – Draft Pedigree Matters (NFL GMs have Sunk Costs, too)
23:20 – The Questions to Ask Before You Cut
25:10 – Closing Thoughts: Forecast, don’t Wishcast
26:00 – Next Week: “They Are Who We Thought They Were”
Related Links
Watch this episode on YouTube
Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts or Spotify
Ep. 11: Midseason Review - Are They Who We Thought They Were?
